科學傢估算，伊波拉恐於10月底前抵達法國與英國

北極蝦

Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October， scientists calculate

Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24， and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date.

科學傢利用伊波拉疫病的擴散模式與航空公司的運輸資料預測出，該病毒有75％的機率恐於10月24日前入境法國，而屆時登陸英國的機率則為50％。

Those numbers are based on air traffic remaining at full capacity. Assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions， France’s risk is still 25 percent， and Britain’s is 15 percent.

這些數據是以空中交通仍維持滿載的情況做出的推論。假設旅遊縮減80％，以反映許多航空公司停飛疫區的現狀，法國的風險仍達25％，而英國為15％。

"It’s really a lottery，" said Derek Gatherer of Britain’s Lancaster University， an expert in viruses who has been tracking the epidemic - the worst Ebola outbreak in history.

「這真的是看運氣，」英國蘭開斯特大學的加瑟勒說，他是追蹤這波史上最嚴重伊波拉大流行的病毒專傢。

The deadly epidemic has killed more than 3，400 people since it began in West Africa in March and has now started to spread faster， infecting almost 7，200 people so far.

該致命疫病從3月在西非開始爆發以來，已造成逾3400人喪生，而現在擴散速度驟然加快，迄今近7200人感染。

France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea， Sierra Leone and Liberia - include French speakers and have busy travel routes back， while Britain’s Heathrow airport is one of the world’s biggest travel hubs.

法國是下一個最可能被襲擊的國傢之一，因最嚴重的疫區國傢—幾內亞、獅子山共和國與賴比瑞亞，都有法語人口，且與法國往來航線頻繁，而英國的希斯洛機場是全球最大的旅遊中樞之一。

"If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and indeed gets worse， as some people have predicted， then it’s only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe，" said Gatherer.（Reuters）

「如果西非的疫情持續盛行，甚至如一些人所預測的惡化，那麼其中一名患者最終搭上前往歐洲的班機，將是遲早的事，」加瑟勒說。（路透）

段皇爺

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tn52003

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Some1

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frankyhui

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stk190

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DiorCherie

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juny0385

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世界沒日

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nh88

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